Australian GP F1 Predictions 2026: Why Ferrari Is In Trouble At Melbourne
The Australian Grand Prix is the first chance for Ferrari to show their strength in the 2026 F1 season, but I believe we won’t have an impressive race.
Currently, the mood with Ferrari fans is quite positive, and while I anticipate a strong season, I don’t expect a great result in Australia. The SF-26 is certainly a front-running car in 2026, but we’re not the strongest car on the grid just yet, and we might find out the hard way come race day. Both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have had strong Melbourne results in the past, but I don't believe that'll be enough to produce a victory.
Melbourne is the host city of the opening race of the season, and if you’re based in Europe, you’ll need to be ready for some early mornings. The 2026 Australian Grand Prix starts with Practice 1 and Practice 2 on March 6th at 1:30 AM UK time. The final practice session and qualifying will take place on March 7th, with the race finally starting on March 8th at 4:00 AM UK time. But why am I so worried about Ferrari's prospects, and how bad do I think it’ll be?
Mercedes Will Cause Ferrari Trouble In Australia
When the lights go green at the start of the 2026 Australian GP, I expect Ferrari to be near the front of the field. I don’t think we will qualify on pole, as I believe Mercedes is the fastest car on the grid right now. However, I predict Ferrari will finish qualifying with both cars in the top six, with Charles Leclerc leading the way for the Prancing Horse. This will mean that the Scuderia drivers will have to get their overtakes done quickly if Ferrari want to win the Melbourne GP. We have shown in practice that our SF-26 can get off the line quickly enough, so this shouldn’t be an issue for Lewis Hamilton or Leclerc. But I don't think a quick start is enough to carry us to victory over the course of an entire race.
As mentioned, I predict that the Mercedes drivers have the car to beat in Melbourne. They didn’t get as much praise as Ferrari in Bahrain testing, but they looked highly competitive compared to most of the other cars on the grid. Of course, Max Verstappen’s Red Bull is always a threat, but I don’t believe a one-man team can beat Ferrari this season. Verstappen will have no issues regarding the new 2026 regulations, but Isack Hadjar will need time to adapt to a new car, a new team, and a new teammate. While I appreciate Hadjar’s talent, I would be very surprised and upset if he were faster than Hamilton or Leclerc in his first race for RB.
Speaking of Hamilton and Leclerc, with the seven-time Drivers’ World Champion still complaining about his race engineer situation, I predict Charles Leclerc will be the leading Ferrari at the 2026 Australian Grand Prix. While I don’t think we have a better car than Mercedes at this point in the season, I think we can be competitive against McLaren. Lando Norris will be keen to stamp his authority as the current Drivers’ World Champion, and Oscar Piastri has the home crowd support, but I think both of our drivers can get the better of Piastri.
While I appreciate the work from the Ferrari technicians, mechanics, and engineers, I don't think a rocket start from Lewis Hamilton or Charles Leclerc will be enough during the race. We might get some overtakes done early, but I predict Hamilton will finish sixth, while his teammate, Leclerc, will be just ahead of him in fifth. See below for my full 2026 Australian F1 GP predictions:
F1 2026 Australian Grand Prix Prediction:
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
- Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
- Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Oliver Bearman (Haas)
- Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)
- Esteban Ocon (Haas)
- Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)
- Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac)
- Nico Hulkenberg (Audi)
- Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
- Sergio Perez (Cadillac)
Ferrari Driver Academy 2026 Australian GP Predictions
If you’re keen to follow along with the future Ferrari stars, the Scuderia has three drivers in action at the 2026 Australian Grand Prix. Dino Beganovic and Rafael Camara will compete in the opening Formula 2 race of the season. Tuukka Taponen, a Formula 3 prospect, is also set to race in Melbourne. The Scuderia Ferrari Driver Academy mentors all three drivers. Alba Larsen, an F1 Academy competitor, is also mentored by the academy but will not compete in Australia. The F1 Academy season doesn’t start until the Formula 1 drivers reach China in a few weeks time.
In Formula 2, the pressure is on for Dino Beganovic. The Swedish-Bosnian driver has been with Ferrari for a while now, and he is yet to make a statement in F2. And with the arrival of fellow Ferrari Driver Academy prospect Rafael Camara on the grid, his season just got much more interesting. It’s for this reason I believe Beganovic has to start fast in Melbourne, so I predict a top-five finish for Dino. Camara has no pressure whatsoever on his F2 debut, which should work in his favour. However, adapting to a new series is never easy, so I predict a top-ten finish will be a good enough start for the Brazilian.
Tuukka Taponen secured three Formula 3 podiums last season, and Ferrari will be expecting the academy prospect to improve on his ninth-place finish in the drivers’ standings in 2025. I believe Taponen will secure a top-five finish in Australia, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the podium!
Do you think my 2026 Melbourne Grand Prix predictions are accurate? Let me know in the comments below!
