F1 Japan: Lewis Hamilton set for difficult weekend after China podium

We are just a few days away from the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix at the iconic Suzuka race track. Ferrari had a brilliant weekend in China, with Hamilton getting his first podium of the season, but the Scuderia still trailed ‌Mercedes by quite a margin. However, I think the Tifosi should pin its hopes on Charles Leclerc this weekend, as Hamilton historically struggles in Japan.

Lewis Hamilton hasn’t finished on the podium in Japan since 2019 while driving for Mercedes, with his former teammate Valtteri Bottas taking the win that day. Former Ferrari driver Sebastian Vettel took the second spot on the podium, but this won’t help us this weekend given Vettel hasn’t even sat in a Formula 1 car for quite some time now. However, Charles Leclerc has finished fourth in his last three races in Japan, while also getting third at the 2022 Japanese Grand Prix. Meaning, if anyone is going to be on the podium for Ferrari this weekend, it’ll probably be Leclerc.

State of the Scuderia: A surprisingly positive start to Ferrari's 2026 season

I think we can all agree that Ferrari’s start to the 2026 Formula 1 season has gone better than the Tifosi expected. While we are still the second-best team on the grid, that’s a huge step-up from last season, where we were lucky to be considered the third or fourth-best constructor. Mercedes will likely be the frontrunners again this weekend, and it’s difficult to see a way to beat them. Ferrari don't really have the qualifying pace to compete, and although our early race pace is amazing, the Mercs always seem to hunt us down as the race goes on. 

The battling between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc has caught the eye of all F1 fans. To be honest, I don’t see what’s so special, as it’s just standard racing and nothing overly impressive. I guess it's fun to watch, and so far, it hasn’t cost the team any points. But perhaps the average Formula 1 fan is so starved of on-track action that a couple of laps of battling between teammates is enough for headline news? At least it does spice up the races a bit from a Scuderia point-of-view, as finishing a couple of seconds behind the Mercedes drivers every weekend isn’t that fun either.

What To Watch At The 2026 Japan GP

This weekend is much easier of a schedule compared to China, with no sprint races and double qualifying. No feeder series will be present at the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix, as F2, F3, and F1 Academy are not scheduled to compete at the event. While it’s a shame to miss out on seeing our Scuderia Ferrari Driver Academy prospects, it makes managing a stable sleeping pattern a little bit easier. However, if you’re in the United Kingdom or Europe, there will still be plenty of early mornings this weekend. Below is the complete 2026 F1 Japan schedule in local Japan Standard Time:

*All times shown are Local Track Time (JST — Japan Standard Time)

Suzuka Track Analysis: This track should suit Ferrari

Overall, I believe Ferrari have a great car for Suzuka. We’ve seen that the Scuderia package is strong under braking, with very little lockups or spins when navigating tricky braking zones. This will come in handy for Turn 8 and Turn 9 in Sector 2, where I can see a lot of drivers having issues with how slidy these new F1 cars seem to be. But I think that Ferrari's strengths will be most apparent in Sector 1, with the complex and fast Turns 1 through 6 all being high-downforce, flowing corners. This type of circuit is well-suited to the Ferrari car’s capabilities, as was evident in its testing performance in Bahrain, even with the less extensive flowing portions of that track. We will certainly suffer against the Mercedes exiting Turn 14, with the long straight leading into Turns 15 and 16 giving the super-fast Merc a huge advantage over the Ferrari.

When checking the weather forecast for Suzuka, I’m not expecting a wet race, which could've helped the Ferrari’s battle against the Mercedes given they wouldn’t be as fast on wet tyres in a straight line and we could've increased our advantage with better exits out of turns given our better stability. However, there is a chance of rain on Saturday, so, once again, if the Ferrari’s can outperform the Mercedes in the wet, that could massively increase our chances of starting on pole position.

The Scuderia’s History At The Japanese GP

Charles Leclerc has a strong record while driving his Ferrari at the Japanese Formula 1 Grand Prix, with the Monaco-born driver rarely finishing outside the top five places at Suzuka. In 2025, Leclerc finished fourth, which is the same position he finished the Grand Prix in 2024 and 2023. The Ferrari driver also secured a podium for the Scuderia in 2022, finishing behind the Red Bulls of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez. Last season, Lewis Hamilton placed seventh in the Japanese GP; in 2024, he finished ninth, and in both 2023 and 2022, he came in fifth. While these aren’t the worst results in the world, Hamilton’s fifth-place finishes were for Mercedes, not Ferrari.

Ferrari Driver Academy Prospect Report: No racing in Japan this weekend

As mentioned earlier, the 2026 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix will not have any feeder series competing this weekend. However, the Ferrari Challenge Japan series kicks-off at Suzuka alongside the F1, so make sure to check out TIFOSI7’s Ferrari Challenge updates to stay up-to-date with all the results and news from this weekend’s racing. The next time we will see the Scuderia Ferrari Driver Academy prospects in action is at the Donington Grand Prix in the British F4 Championship, with Alba Hurup Larsen scheduled to compete in the series for the first time this year on April 18th. 

Didn't watch the Chinese Grand Prix? Catch up on everything you missed from Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Alba Hurup Larsen here!