Why Ferrari Fans Should Lower Their Australian Grand Prix Expectations

The opening race of the 2026 Formula 1 season is fast approaching, and Ferrari fans from around the world are hoping to see the Prancing Horses finally put an end to our long wait for a Constructors' championship. However, the first race of the season in Australia has produced mixed success for Ferrari over the years, so should we be lowering our expectations ahead of the tricky opener?

I personally don’t believe we will win in Melbourne, however, I do expect us to be competitive and show that we are a serious contender this season. But if you’re a lifelong Ferrari fan like myself, you’ll know that success can never be that easy (unless you have Michael Schumacher at the wheel). I’m not the only one that is holding back either, with Frederic Vasseur also playing down Ferrari’s chance of victory in the opening race of the season.

Frederic Vasseur Expecting Tough Australian Grand Prix

Frederic Vasseur, in remarks to F1 media following Bahrain testing, emphasized that while a convincing performance in Melbourne is ideal, Ferrari's priority this season is consistent development over the course of the season, instead of securing a win in the first race. I think this is a brilliant plan, as we have seen teams like Aston Martin in the past start well and then quickly fade away once the other teams catch-up in development. However, if we can remain competitive throughout the entire season, it’ll give us the best chance of securing the constructors’ title.

“I had a clear idea before this session that I don’t want to say it doesn’t matter, the result of Melbourne, because I prefer to have a good result than a bad one. But at the end of the day, I know that the development will be so huge during the season that the most important is the capacity of the team to develop, the capacity of the team to bring parts quickly, much more than the performance at race one.” - Frederic Vasseur

I would be more than happy if we finished the Melbourne Grand Prix with both drivers sitting comfortably inside the top six. This would give us a nice point haul, but also show that both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are competitive enough to compete for podiums in the early stages of the season, thus setting up the foundation for further development mentioned by Vasseur. But I would be very worried if we were outside the top ten, so while I’ll be slightly lenient in Australia, we can’t embarrass ourselves.

Ferrari’s Mixed Success At Melbourne

Part of my early season anxiety is coming from last season’s Melbourne Grand Prix. While Ferrari didn’t do terribly, finishing in eighth and tenth place, I feel it set the tone for what would be a largely uneventful season. Red Bull, Mercedes, and McLaren will all be strong this season, and it would really surprise me if I’m wrong about that. So if I’m correct, we could be in huge trouble if we’re once again the fourth-best team on the grid, as some of the midfield teams always improve, which could demote us to the fifth-best team or lower if we’re not careful.

However, it isn’t all negative, as in 2024 we had an amazing start to the season, getting a P1-P2 finish in Melbourne! Charles Leclerc also won in 2022, so we should expect Leclerc to be the leading Ferrari down-under. We don’t exactly know what to expect from Lewis Hamilton this season, but if he is as happy as we think he is, then both drivers should be more than capable for getting the top six finish I’m hoping for come race week…

How well do you think Ferrari will do in Melbourne? Let me know in the comments below!